How to Survive and Thrive in Our Current Crisis Era
Our ancestors danced to the rhythms of nature. We would do well to listen to them play their songs.
“History shapes generations, and generations shape history.”
That would make for a sweet Tweet. But, not today. Today I need a long-form platform to etch out my thoughts about a book I recently finished. The book is titled, The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy, written by William Strauss and Neil Howe. I came across this book while looking at the “Explore similar books” section under the book-page on Amazon for a book called, The Sovereign Individual: Mastering the Transition to the Information Age, by James Dale Davidson and Lord William Reese-Mogg. Note: both books were a challenge for me to read, but I got through the first one, still working on the second.
This year, I found myself wanting to read about the future more than ever. These last few years have been tough on us humans. But we always find a way to work through it. How? Because it can seem like our linear path towards a utopian vision of our best-selves, that is just around the corner, is actually a direct slide down to our inevitable omnicide; our complete and total destruction (one of the many words I highlighted while reading and had to look up). In what way or manner do we humans always end up navigating through the hell on Earth we create? Like wars, financial crises, terrorism, global diseases, and good old general anarchy? We’ve made it this far because we’ve been here before.
Analogous to our ancient ancestors. Similar strides we surf. Samesies.
Ba-dee-ya, Dancing in September
In predicting the future, “The greatest prognosticators are retrospectively proven to have been directionally correct, but they often fall apart in the specifics.” (taken from The Commonplace Newsletter, by Thomas J. Bevan, post titled, “On Finally Getting Around To Reading The Sovereign Individual”).
No one can predict the future exactly. Not yet. But looking back at history and seeing the patterns, we can get a general idea of what us humans are capable of and what we tend to do more often than not.
“Everyone understands connections between the seasons of the year and the seasons of the human life. Each has its necessary place and contributes its special character to the whole. It’s an organic part of the total cycle, linking past, future, and containing both within itself.” (The Fourth Turning)
History may not be on a linear path towards one great era. It is more a kin to the seasons of nature, cyclical.
Spring. Summer. Fall. Winter. Where the new replaces the old. Childhood. Young Adulthood. Midlife. Elderhood. Growth. Maturation. Entropy. Death.
Traditional societies knew this in their bones. It can be seen on their tattered clothes and weapons on their buried bodies that we dig up today. We read it in their scriptures and texts. They knew that life and people have occurrences at regular intervals, or saeculums (pronounced, seek-yuh-lum) - cycles that are approximately the length of a long human life. Or in other words, a generation. And four phases (four turnings) in each saeculum lasting about twenty years each. “The saeculum lends history its underlying temporal beat.”
We simply forgot how to dance to it.
Things That Come in Fours
Seasons - spring, summer, fall, winter
Generations - childhood, young adulthood, middle age, older adult
Elements - wind, water, fire, earth
Directions - north, south, east, west
Moon - new moon, first quarter, full moon, last quarter
Materials - gold, silver, bronze, iron (yes there are more but these are the favourites)
Nature - rivers, trees, mountains, cities
Cards - spade, heart, diamond, club
Rocky Planets - Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars
Math - addition, subtraction, multiplication, division (the basics)
Four Horseman of the Apocalypse - conquest, war, famine, death
Christian disciples - Matthew, Mark, Luke, John
Drum beat - 1-2-3-4, 1-2-3-4,…
What else comes in fours?
How to Prepare for Our Fourth Turning Crisis Era
“Don't think you can escape the Fourth Turning the way you might today distance yourself from news, national politics, or even taxes you don't feel like paying. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted. The Fourth Turning necessitates the death and rebirth of the social order.” (The Fourth Turning)
Woah that’s heavy. But I suppose it needs to be. In order to catch out attention and spring us into action. We are in the Millennial generation’s Crisis Era.
According to to Bill and Neil, western civilizations - from Rome to Rhode Island - Go through phases (turnings) like this…
1. High - comfort after a crisis, upbeat era
2. Awakening - spiritual upheaval, old order under attack from new values regime
3. Unraveling - strengthening individualism, weakening institutions
4. Crisis (we are here) - new values regime replaces old civic order
Those damn millennials, at it again.
To make it through our next Crisis - The Fourth Turning - Bill and Neil suggest the following…
”Return to classic virtues”
Classic virtues like dependability, honour, virtue, and integrity.
“Be a good citizen in your town, a good neighbor on your block, a good work partner on the job. Be mannerly and adhere to public standards of conduct. Expect your community reputation to matter far more than it does now.” (The Fourth Turning)
“Heed emerging community norms”
Don’t go Black Pilled. Living off the grid and forgetting it all may seem enticing, but we need you now more than ever.
“Being “unplugged” could penalize you at a time you might need to know what all levels of government are doing just to meet your most basic of needs. Appearances will matter. Justice will be rough, because society will require more order but have fewer resources and less time to impose it.” (The Fourth Turning)
“Build personal relationships of all kinds”
Use your skills to be dependable and also self-reliant. Know who to turn to during an emergency and be that person.
“Face-to-face contacts with everyone (neighbors, bosses, employees, customers, suppliers, creditors, debtors, public officials, police) will become newly important. Expect a loss of personal privacy. Fourth Turnings can be dark times for the free spirit: Just as one kind of official may have new authority to do something for you, another kind—some hastily deputized magistrate—may have new authority to do something to you.” (The Fourth Turning)
“Prepare yourself (and your children) for teamwork”
Integrate your skills and pastimes with other people.
“Stress less what sets you apart as an individual, and more what you have in common with others. In business, move toward structures that combine teams and hierarchies, using technology (including computers) as tools to bring people together. Raise children to excel at team virtues. Don't track kids out of the mainstream. Where public schools work, you should educate them there, so they can learn group skills among peers of diverse backgrounds and abilities.” (The Fourth Turning)
“Look to your family for support”
Start to develop or continue to maintain positive relationships with your family.
“When the Fourth Turning arrives, your family will become your ultimate safety net. Maintain relationships of trust with your extended family, from grandparents to grandchildren, in-laws to distant cousins. As other supports weaken, your household will function best if it is multigenerational, with young and old caring for each other's special needs. At the height of Crisis, being a young retiree (or living far from other family members) could pose new hardships.” (The Fourth Turning)
“Gird for the weakening or collapse of public support mechanisms”
Cut back and save your money. It may not be so secure in the future.
“You should start at once to build your own financial security. You should save plenty of money, even if that means cutting back on your current lifestyle. The best way to guarantee good health care in old age is to practice good health habits today. Expect a new triage in health care rules, and don't count on anybody else paying for the residue of your Unraveling-era bad habits.” (The Fourth Turning)
“Diversify everything you do”
Strengthen and add to your talent-stack.
“Once the Crisis catalyzes, anything can happen. If you are starting a career now, realize that generalists with survival know-how will have the edge over specialists whose skills are useful only in an undamaged environment. Be fluent in as many languages, cultures, and technologies as you can. Your business could face a total alteration of market conditions” (The Fourth Turning)
Brace for Impact
Rectify. Converge. Bond. Gather. Root. Brace. Hedge.
The Fourth Turning could mark the end of the nation. It could mark the end of the modern era. It could put North America in a worse situation that it already is in. Or, The Fourth Turning could put us and the rest of the world in a better spot than we are now.
Whatever happens, we will persevere. And the preparations me make now will help us no matter what comes of the future. Building strong relationships with your family and community, getting healthier, and improving your skills are always something I would bet on.
If you made it this far, thanks. Flushing out these ideas can be challenging, but it sure is fun. Please feel free to leave a comment and let us know your thoughts about the future and what you think might happen.
Take care, talk soon.
-D